Around the Bond Market, November 2024

The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bps). Conditions are still “loose”, but not as loose as one might typically expect after 75 bps of...

The Market in Pictures, November 1

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Arch: Are mega-cap valuations a caution signal? Historically, when the largest stocks are this highly valued, it...

Rate Talk into the Election

The 10-year Treasury yield is up ~60 bps from the YTD lows seen just prior to the 50bp Fed cut on September 16. The widespread view is that the spike in rates is due to a combination of a) repricing the Fed’s rate cut path and b) the rising risk of a post-election...

Econ Data Not Bond-Friendly

September CPI   Year-over-year, consumer prices rose 2.4%, a tenth of a percentage point more than expected but down from the 2.5% annual increase in August. 2.4% is the smallest annual gain since February 2021. Food prices rose 0.4%, while energy prices dropped...