FOMC : Searching for the Neutral Rate

The Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut. It was the first double-dissent by governors since 1993.  ...

Strong Sales, Weak Inflation

Core CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given the low comp rolling off from last year (monthly numbers shown on graphic below).    ...
Don’t Hold the Bag

Don’t Hold the Bag

There’s noise… so much noise. The headlines, data, and stuff that just don’t matter bombard investors. It’s our own dang fault. The noise only exists because there’s demand for it. Investors click on the bait and even make decisions off the emotions triggered by the...

Breaking Down 10 Year Bond Yields

While there is certainly a lot going on in rates markets, it’s been interesting to see participants give more attention to the fiscal backdrop of the US government. It comes as no surprise that the weighted average cost of our government debt has increased...