The Market in Pictures, August 26

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fill the puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Where will Fed Funds and CPI intersect?     JL: and will the 10 year bond again give us clues to...

The Fed May Not Be Your Friend For Awhile

CPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic   A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic activity — creating slack and driving down Unit Labor Cost growth. A key economic...
More Stocks. Less Bonds. Better Capture.

More Stocks. Less Bonds. Better Capture.

The plan was to discuss valuations, but July created the opportunity to revisit two important concepts: Asset Allocation Upside and Downside Capture We wanted to touch on both and their impact to our portfolios.   Asset Allocation   Asset allocation is the...

Can the Fed Really Pivot?

Another Month, Another (BIG) Hike. Next Wednesday, July 27th, the Fed is expected to hike 75bps and bring their overnight target up to the FOMC’s consensus neutral rate of 2.5%. We believe that more hikes will be needed to tame inflation, which helps explain why...