Rearview to Windshield, August 2023

July ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 gained 3.2% in July on a total return basis, the fifth month of gains and the ninth straight positive July. Less favorable seasonality in late summer has investors cautious, but lately, it appears that the path of least...

The Fed is Still on Alert

With many declaring the Fed’s work done, we thought it made sense to discuss the challenges that still remain in this hiking cycle. The headline inflation numbers have been hammered down, but underlying conditions still give them the backdrop to try putting the...

Will June CPI Be the Low?

More Progress in June Inflation Numbers: → Headline CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.1% prior) → Core CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior) It was exactly one year ago that headline CPI topped 9.0% (July 13th, 2022) with 10-year yields closing at 3.07%...

Fed and Treasury on Collision Course

QT Slowly Eating Away Liquidity   Even with the spike in the Fed’s Balance sheet following the SIVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, QT is still quietly going on in the background. The Fed has stayed course in their communication of the importance of shrinking...