The Fed is Still on Alert

With many declaring the Fed’s work done, we thought it made sense to discuss the challenges that still remain in this hiking cycle. The headline inflation numbers have been hammered down, but underlying conditions still give them the backdrop to try putting the...

Will June CPI Be the Low?

More Progress in June Inflation Numbers: → Headline CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.1% prior) → Core CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior) It was exactly one year ago that headline CPI topped 9.0% (July 13th, 2022) with 10-year yields closing at 3.07%...

Fed and Treasury on Collision Course

QT Slowly Eating Away Liquidity   Even with the spike in the Fed’s Balance sheet following the SIVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, QT is still quietly going on in the background. The Fed has stayed course in their communication of the importance of shrinking...
Q2 2023 Recap and Chart Book

Q2 2023 Recap and Chart Book

(Click above for the full update) This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path...

Rearview to Windshield, July 2023

June ‘23 Market Recap: The banking fears of Q1 faded into an all-out Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) FOMO trade in Q2, as the S&P 500 returned 8.74%. Outside of AI, this quarter’s narrative was “Immaculate Disinflation”, which embodies falling inflation and stable...