Fleeting Bond Rally

While bonds got off to a fast start this year, February’s returns were almost the mirror image from a total return standpoint. As the chart shows, Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index returned -3.32% last month. With data going back to March 1990, this ranks as the...

Rearview to Windshield, March 2023

February ‘23 Market Recap: The January rally suddenly looks distant as equities closed lower for the month, finishing down 5.0% from their early February peak. This has been a confluence of technicals, bond yield increases due to uncomfortably strong economic data in...

Market Finally Getting the Point?

The blue line below is what the Fed is communicating per their DOT plot, on the terminal rate going to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The orange line is yesterday’s Fed Funds curve (following CPI). The market expectations for the Fed Funds rate is finally rising to the...

The Market in Pictures, February 10

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Fed Funds expectations are still bouncing around on Fed talk / speculation   Source:...

The Market in Pictures, February 3

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: One could make the case that wage growth is receding from its highs   Data as of...