Fleeting Bond Rally

While bonds got off to a fast start this year, February’s returns were almost the mirror image from a total return standpoint. As the chart shows, Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index returned -3.32% last month. With data going back to March 1990, this ranks as the...

The Market in Pictures, February 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: It’s been awhile since 5% rates were an option for investors, things looked different back...

Market Finally Getting the Point?

The blue line below is what the Fed is communicating per their DOT plot, on the terminal rate going to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The orange line is yesterday’s Fed Funds curve (following CPI). The market expectations for the Fed Funds rate is finally rising to the...

Higher For Longer

Another Stubborn CPI Report Likely Pressures Fed to Maintain Hikes   The BLS’s latest inflation figures published this morning showed consumer prices rose 6.4% Y/Y in January, slightly higher than consensus. From a high-level view  it was a fairly status quo...

Post-FOMC, February 2023

As expected, the Fed hiked 25bps to the 4.5%-4.75% range, the eighth hike in a year.  The markets experienced a pretty large rally following the FOMC meeting & presser. Stocks moved higher and yields lower as Powell continued to believe a soft landing was very...