The Market in Pictures, May 5

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations   Data as of 05.05.2023  ...
Everything is Fine?

Everything is Fine?

A quick reminder, the formula for generating investment returns looks like this:   Return = Yield + Growth +/- Valuation Change   Here’s the graphic showing each of the 3 potential drivers of return, broken out with annualized return of each component, by...

Prepare for More Tightening

Another Hot Inflation Report   CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...

Quantitative Tightening is Here

The balance sheets of global central banks have grown drastically in the last 15 years. The United States balance sheet alone grew from ~$4 trillion to ~$9 trillion over the pace of 2 years during the pandemic. The surge in liquidity has had a drastic effect on...

Equities in a Tightening Regime

We continue to understand that emotions are heightened in this current market – the volatility is real. Thus, we know that a lot of y’all are focusing on how to help your clients Think Well and we love that. But, being a wildcard, I’m going to take this musing in a...