Peak Inflation ≠ Peak Yields

As interest rates continue their hockey stick move higher, we looked back to history for guidance on when we might see peak rates. We discovered a valuable nugget of information: before Volcker, interest rates actually tended to peak after the CPI peaked (often well...

The Market in Pictures, September 23

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: This year already ranks with some of the worst modern markets for the frequency of big down days...

The Fed May Not Be Your Friend For Awhile

CPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic   A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic activity — creating slack and driving down Unit Labor Cost growth. A key economic...