by John Luke Tyner | Oct 12, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
I’ve been reading Edward Chancellors book The Price of Time over the last couple weeks. It’s a bit dense but found it thoroughly interesting and informative. Basically the entire book walks through the importance of interest and the role it has played in forming our...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 28, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
As interest rates continue their hockey stick move higher, we looked back to history for guidance on when we might see peak rates. We discovered a valuable nugget of information: before Volcker, interest rates actually tended to peak after the CPI peaked (often well...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 22, 2022 | Blog, Macro Updates
As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to raise rates 75bps, taking the target range to 3.00% to 3.25%, with a total of 300bps in policy adjustments since March…the fastest rise over a seven-month span in four decades. Coming into today, the debate was between 75bps...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 14, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Another Hot Inflation Report CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 2, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
The balance sheets of global central banks have grown drastically in the last 15 years. The United States balance sheet alone grew from ~$4 trillion to ~$9 trillion over the pace of 2 years during the pandemic. The surge in liquidity has had a drastic effect on...
