by John Luke Tyner | Jan 4, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Biggest Two-Month Rally in 40 Years Optimistic inflation data, and a Fed in the driver’s seat, have investors pricing in ~6 rate cuts in 2024. Source: Bianco as of 12.31.2023 While 6 cuts sound optimistic, based on history it’s not outlandish....
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The shift in expectations for future interest rates has become the top narrative of markets. Following last week’s FOMC meeting, markets were thrilled to see the Fed add rate cuts to their Dot plot (SEP Projections) and talk about the potential for rate cuts....
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 15, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed left its target rate unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, matching market consensus. The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, doesn’t have another rate hike penciled in next year. Source: Bianco/Fed as of 12.14.2023 In addition, expectations...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 7, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Fed expectations moved drastically last week. On Friday, November 24, markets were pricing in three cuts in 2024, with the first in June (orange). By Friday, December 1, the market was pricing in five cuts in 2024, starting around April (blue). Source: Bianco...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 9, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Last week brought a substantial rally in bonds following a brutal three-month span of higher rates. There are a couple of reasons we can point to for the move lower in rates: The US Treasury cut back slightly on the amount of long-term bonds it’s planning to auction,...
