Traditional Bonds Still Not Ideal

The flexible components of core CPI have been in deflationary territory over the past year (blue line in the chart below). The stickier components of core CPI, however, are still running well above their pre-pandemic average (orange line).   Source: Bianco as of...

Transitory Disinflation

US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month.  Both the Core and the Headline consumer price index increased 0.4% from February.   Source: Stifel as of 04.10.2024   March CPI: Headline: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY: Headline:...

The Market in Pictures, April 5

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Beckham: After this week’s data and Fedspeak, it’s now a toss-up for markets whether the first rate cut...

Lot of Moving Parts in the Bond Market

Treasury Issuance Back at Pandemic Levels   As we’ve noted over the last year, the current level of US fiscal deficits, given a strong economy and low unemployment, is uncharted territory.  It was ironic that Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget...