The Market in Pictures, September 2

by | Sep 2, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:   Dave: The first half of 2022 mostly driven by Fed hikes, but 2nd half looks like an earnings story…   Data...

The Market in Pictures, August 26

by | Aug 26, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fill the puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Where will Fed Funds and CPI intersect?     JL: and will the 10 year bond again give us clues to...

The Fed May Not Be Your Friend For Awhile

by | Aug 17, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

CPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic   A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic activity — creating slack and driving down Unit Labor Cost growth. A key economic...

The Market in Pictures, August 12

by | Aug 12, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   Joseph: All of the 2020 job losses have now been recovered. Where that stacks up vs. other recessions    Source: Calculated Risk as of 08.05.2022...

Peak Inflation

by | Aug 11, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates

U.S. Headline CPI was flat from June to July, slowing to 8.5% YoY. The core CPI (ex food & energy) rose +0.3%, keeping the YoY number at 5.9%. Headline CPI had the lowest monthly overall reading since May 2020 (0.0%). The unchanged reading was driven by an...