The State of Bonds Entering Q4

Tug of War:  Goods vs Services Inflation   Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, while the rise in services prices stabilizes.   Source: Apollo. As of 9/22/25.   As a whole, 72% of CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation...

Around the Bond Market, November 2024

The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bps). Conditions are still “loose”, but not as loose as one might typically expect after 75 bps of...

The Market in Pictures, January 26

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Brett: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is said to be the Fed’s favorite indicator, and it’s...