CPI Target Moved

The US government will change its CPI methodology beginning next month. Previously they had updated weights biennially using two years of expenditure data. So for last year, the 2019 and 2020 y/y %’s have been combined to form the “comp” against which y/y inflation...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Q4 Recap and Chart Book

This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path traveled to this point, helping to set...

December CPI In-Line

CPI was right on the screws with expectations at -0.1% on headline and +0.3% core. But the details do paint a picture of lingering pressures at the core. Core services rose by 0.5%, up from the 0.4% in November. Owners’ equivalent rent rose by 0.8%, the highest...

The Market in Pictures, January 6

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Not many places to hide in 2022   Source: JP Morgan as of 12.31.22     Dave: and the only...