May 2023 FOMC: (Still) Higher for Longer

The Fed delivered a 25bps hike as was broadly expected by markets. They made a modification in their statement omitting the wording regarding the necessity of further rate hikes. To us, this indicates a sort of “hawkish” pause in policy here at the 5-5.25%...

Post-FOMC, February 2023

As expected, the Fed hiked 25bps to the 4.5%-4.75% range, the eighth hike in a year.  The markets experienced a pretty large rally following the FOMC meeting & presser. Stocks moved higher and yields lower as Powell continued to believe a soft landing was very...

The Yield Curve and Its Impact

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has the ability to set interest rates through the Fed Funds rate – the overnight lending rate among US banks. Banks are required to retain a certain amount in deposits as capital to help guarantee their solvency. Bank deposits...

Peak Funds Rate, For Longer

Fed chair Powell (and many other FOMC members) have made it clear that as of today, the Fed intends to:   Slow down the pace of hikes Reach a higher peak rate than it thought in September Stay at peak for longer than normal   How long will policy remain...

Rearview to Windshield, November 2022

October 2022 Market Recap: The market ended the month +8.1% in October, as Q3 earnings season looks to be a complete redux of Q2 earnings season. There has been earnings weakness, but largely not as bad as feared in aggregate, while the market seems to be focused on...