Rearview to Windshield, September 2023

August ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 reversed course in August, falling 1.6% after jumping 10% in June-July on a total return basis. Higher rates, more positioning risk, and seasonality were likely headwinds to equities, despite solid macro data and earning....

All Around the Bond Market, Aug 2023

Jackson Hole   Fed Chair Powell’s message last week at Jackson Hole was direct. The Fed won’t be taking victory laps over inflation just yet. Powell noted “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies … we will keep at it until the job is done.” Reminds us...

The Market in Pictures, August 25

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: It’s unusual for stocks to rally when real yields are screaming higher   Data as of...

Market Still Undershooting Fed Communication

Global central bankers will gather later this month in Jackson Hole, WY for their annual meeting. We anticipate markets will seek to understand Powell’s desire to push back on market pricing that the Fed will cut its key rate to around 4% by January 2025 from its...