T-Bills At Risk?

We’ve written extensively about the debt ceiling, and how it could impact markets (see Part One and Part Deux). While uncertainty remains around the various market impacts of a default, the more pressing client question is “Are the T-bills I just bought going to be...

April CPI is No Game Changer

Inline CPI print with Shelter continuing to pull the index higher although some signs of slowing. Used Cars prices came in hotter than expected which have been lagging the Manheim index for most of the year. Food prices were down for the second month in a row which...

The Market in Pictures, May 5

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations   Data as of 05.05.2023  ...

Rearview to Windshield, May 2023

April ‘23 Market Recap: Despite elevated macro and micro uncertainty, the S&P 500 rallied 1.5% in April. Keeping with positive correlation, fixed income continues to trade in the same direction as equities. The recent sharp decline in equity market breadth also...

Thoughts on the Curve. And Municipals.

Curves are Inverted, Term Premiums LOW   The market continues to price in a return to the 2010 norms of subdued inflation pressure, with term premia below zero across the curve.   Source: TS Lombard. As of 04.12.2023   While slower nominal growth could put a...