Who is Wrong About Rates?

Another Sizable Hike   The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell indicated decisions moving forward would be data dependent. Following the market responses...

Rearview to Windshield, August 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   July 2022 Market Recap: The month of July was driven by better-than-feared earnings, economic data, and falling inflation expectations. The market spent most of June pricing in an earnings Armageddon that has yet to come to...

Will the Fed Flip?

Powell Pivot or Powell Plunge… Which is It? The Fed’s aggressive tightening over the last 3 months has been a vicious attempt to regain their credibility after insisting inflation was merely transitory for all of 2021 + the first quarter of ‘22. In turn, for their...

Rearview to Windshield, May 2022

Developments Over the Last Month   April showers doused bullish sentiment last week as the SPX wrapped up April with an 8.8% decline. This was the worst April return for the index since 1970 and the fourth lowest April return on record. Fear over this week’s FOMC...