Prepare for More Tightening

Another Hot Inflation Report   CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...

Who is Wrong About Rates?

Another Sizable Hike   The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell indicated decisions moving forward would be data dependent. Following the market responses...

Rearview to Windshield, August 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   July 2022 Market Recap: The month of July was driven by better-than-feared earnings, economic data, and falling inflation expectations. The market spent most of June pricing in an earnings Armageddon that has yet to come to...

Will the Fed Flip?

Powell Pivot or Powell Plunge… Which is It? The Fed’s aggressive tightening over the last 3 months has been a vicious attempt to regain their credibility after insisting inflation was merely transitory for all of 2021 + the first quarter of ‘22. In turn, for their...