The Market in Pictures, May 5

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations   Data as of 05.05.2023  ...

May 2023 FOMC: (Still) Higher for Longer

The Fed delivered a 25bps hike as was broadly expected by markets. They made a modification in their statement omitting the wording regarding the necessity of further rate hikes. To us, this indicates a sort of “hawkish” pause in policy here at the 5-5.25%...

The Market in Pictures, April 28

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Brad: The recession playbook has mostly filled in and markets seem to be adjusting   Source:...

Thoughts on the Curve. And Municipals.

Curves are Inverted, Term Premiums LOW   The market continues to price in a return to the 2010 norms of subdued inflation pressure, with term premia below zero across the curve.   Source: TS Lombard. As of 04.12.2023   While slower nominal growth could put a...

Is Gold Worth Owning?

The recent performance of gold has caught investor attention. Following the banking sector stress, and a near-record drop in the US 2-year Treasury yield, markets have had a significant change in risk appetite. Markets have repriced from 100bps of further tightening...