Peak Inflation ≠ Peak Yields

As interest rates continue their hockey stick move higher, we looked back to history for guidance on when we might see peak rates. We discovered a valuable nugget of information: before Volcker, interest rates actually tended to peak after the CPI peaked (often well...

The Market in Pictures, September 23

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: This year already ranks with some of the worst modern markets for the frequency of big down days...

FOMC September 2022: Another Big Hike

As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to raise rates 75bps, taking the target range to 3.00% to 3.25%, with a total of 300bps in policy adjustments since March…the fastest rise over a seven-month span in four decades. Coming into today, the debate was between 75bps...

The Market in Pictures, September 16

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Inflation was the topic of the week, its death may have been greatly exaggerated   Data as of...

Prepare for More Tightening

Another Hot Inflation Report   CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...