May 2024: Around the Bond Market

Short Term Treasuries Offer Higher Income and Stability vs. Long Duration   As interest rates have moved higher, the front end of the curve is offering a combination of high nominal income and interest rate protection. As the graphic shows, 2yr Treasury yields would...

Traditional Bonds Still Not Ideal

The flexible components of core CPI have been in deflationary territory over the past year (blue line in the chart below). The stickier components of core CPI, however, are still running well above their pre-pandemic average (orange line).   Source: Bianco as of...

Transitory Disinflation

US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month.  Both the Core and the Headline consumer price index increased 0.4% from February.   Source: Stifel as of 04.10.2024   March CPI: Headline: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY: Headline:...

Lot of Moving Parts in the Bond Market

Treasury Issuance Back at Pandemic Levels   As we’ve noted over the last year, the current level of US fiscal deficits, given a strong economy and low unemployment, is uncharted territory.  It was ironic that Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget...