by Aptus PM Team | Mar 13, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Stabilizing Above 3% The U.S. CPI rose +0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y) & core (ex-food & energy) was +0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in February. The so-called “supercore” gauge slowed to 0.47% on the month, down from a red-hot 0.85% in January. The data is...
by Aptus PM Team | Feb 29, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Productivity is the Way Out Productivity plays a crucial role in influencing both inflation and economic growth. A key to stopping a second wave of inflation is likely productivity (output per hour) picking up. Instead of having too much money chasing too few goods we...
by Aptus PM Team | Feb 14, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Consumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. This delivers another painful blow to market expectations for quick and aggressive Fed rate cuts. January CPI MoM Headline: +0.3% (Exp: +0.2%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY Headline: +3.1% (Exp: +2.9%)...
by Aptus PM Team | Feb 1, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The Fed left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, as was expected. This is the fourth meeting in a row of no action. They did back away from their prior bias to further tightening as inflation has fallen notably over the past year. However, it is still above...
by Aptus PM Team | Jan 18, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Market is Pricing in Six Rates Cuts in 2024 Currently, Fed Funds traders are pricing in six cuts (shown below in orange) by the end of 2024. Keep in mind that the Fed projected just three cuts in its latest Summary of Economic Projections (shown below in blue)....
by Aptus PM Team | Jan 12, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The U.S. Headline CPI for December rose +0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) and the core CPI (ex: food & energy) was +0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y). Source: BLS/Stifel as of 01.11.2024 Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. Core inflation is being aided by...
