by John Luke Tyner | Feb 2, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed hiked 25bps to the 4.5%-4.75% range, the eighth hike in a year. The markets experienced a pretty large rally following the FOMC meeting & presser. Stocks moved higher and yields lower as Powell continued to believe a soft landing was very...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 18, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The US government will change its CPI methodology beginning next month. Previously they had updated weights biennially using two years of expenditure data. So for last year, the 2019 and 2020 y/y %’s have been combined to form the “comp” against which y/y inflation...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 13, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
CPI was right on the screws with expectations at -0.1% on headline and +0.3% core. But the details do paint a picture of lingering pressures at the core. Core services rose by 0.5%, up from the 0.4% in November. Owners’ equivalent rent rose by 0.8%, the highest...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 5, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Real Bad, Nominal Worse While the Fed might have been slow off the mark in fighting inflation in 2021, they marched double-time last year starting in March, taking the benchmark Fed Funds rate from about roughly 0% to 4.5%. This brought extreme pain to the...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 21, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Finally Flinched BOJ made a decision to double the trading band of the 10-year Japanese government bond. We believe the move is justified. It may mark the start of a gradual shift away from the strict bond yield controls emblematic of...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 13, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
The CPI report came in softer than expected again in November. Core saw the smallest increase since Aug 2021. Core goods were down -0.5% (weakest since April 2020) and core services rose by 0.4% (smallest increase since July of this year). Headline CPI was also below...
