by John Luke Tyner | May 3, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The Fed delivered a 25bps hike as was broadly expected by markets. They made a modification in their statement omitting the wording regarding the necessity of further rate hikes. To us, this indicates a sort of “hawkish” pause in policy here at the 5-5.25%...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 27, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Curves are Inverted, Term Premiums LOW The market continues to price in a return to the 2010 norms of subdued inflation pressure, with term premia below zero across the curve. Source: TS Lombard. As of 04.12.2023 While slower nominal growth could put a...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 13, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Core CPI was in line with a softer shelter print (shelter/OER came in at 0.45%), but the headline was a little soft as energy declined, food was flat. The big question is how will the Fed view this number? Source: Macro84. As of 4/12/23. Core still at...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 3, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
A Look Back on TIPS Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a type of government bond issued by the US Treasury Department. Unlike conventional bonds, TIPS are designed to protect investors from inflation. This is done by adjusting the bond’s...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Municipal Spreads are Lacking Luster Spreads on short municipal paper (10yrs and in) are well inside their historic averages. Source: UBS. As of March 17th, 2023. Municipal Supply Remains Tight The expected muni supply coming to market is...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 14, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Consumer prices rose in February by the most in 5 months, although the move was roughly in line with expectations. Headline CPI number moved lower to 6.0% YoY as the February 0.4% print replaced last year’s 0.7% print. Source: Bianco. As of 3/14/23. Next...
