by John Luke Tyner | Mar 13, 2023 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
2 Years a Movin’ To give some perspective on the move in Fed Funds rate the last couple days, we have just witnessed one of the fastest/ largest slides since 1987. Source: Bloomberg. As of 3/13/23. The chart above shows Fed Funds curve last...
by David Wagner | Mar 10, 2023 | Blog, Macro Updates
I hope that y’all have not had PTSD 2.0 of the GFC over the last few days. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRE) is having its worst week since … October 2008. We had to break out the textbooks on my last musing (ERP), so I’ll do my best to keep this as simple as...
by David Wagner | Mar 7, 2023 | Blog, Macro Updates
I’ve fielded a few questions regarding Mike Wilson’s (of Morgan Stanley) recent market commentary. Outside of corporate profitability, i.e., margins driving down future earnings, one of his biggest takes is on the current valuation of the S&P 500. As of 3/7/23,...
by David Wagner | Feb 23, 2023 | Blog, Macro Updates
I’m going to cut to the chase here – I’ve been reading a lot on the debt crisis here recently, especially after the Congressional Budget Office (“CBO”) released its latest Budget and Economic Outlook last week. This report projects the US fiscal and economic outlook...
by David Wagner | Feb 14, 2023 | Blog, Macro Updates
Q4 ’22 Earnings Season Given current levels of Nominal GDP (+7.3% YoY) & Real GDP (+2.1% YoY), it appears that a recession has been delayed, but the market has begun to witness an EPS downturn. Almost 85% of the S&P 500 constituents have reported...
by David Wagner | Jan 24, 2023 | Blog, Macro Updates
It’s showtime baby! As many of y’all are aware, Q4 earnings season tends to be a bit longer than the others, as it takes a little while longer for companies to close the books on their year-end. We expect earnings to take the center stage going forward, where...
