The Market in Pictures, November 11

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   JL: stock prices have generally tracked earnings revisions this year, with a clear bias towards...

A Good Day for The Fed

Year-over-year, CPI rose 7.7%, down from the 8.2% pace reported the month prior and the fourth consecutive month of cooling price pressures, albeit still near a four-decade high. It rose 0.4% in October, less than the 0.6% gain expected and following a similar...

What Could Stop the Fed?

Newton’s First Law of Motion states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless an external force acts upon it. The Fed is in motion (hiking rates/QT) and until the external force (lower inflation) acts upon it, expect them to stay in motion (higher...

The Market in Pictures, November 4

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Bond markets get credit for being better forecasters than equity investors, but they’ve not...

Rearview to Windshield, November 2022

October 2022 Market Recap: The market ended the month +8.1% in October, as Q3 earnings season looks to be a complete redux of Q2 earnings season. There has been earnings weakness, but largely not as bad as feared in aggregate, while the market seems to be focused on...

Thoughts on Interest Rates

We’ve had a number of questions regarding peak interest rates. Interest rates have of course been a hot topic in 2022… the 4th worst year for government bonds since 1721 has led to an interesting backdrop of uncharted waters. Interest rates can be confusing, and we’ve...