by John Luke Tyner | Aug 31, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Stocks Fall on the “No Pivot” Powell Speech SPX down over -5% in the past 3 days since Jackson Hole. Additional Fedspeak: BARKIN: JOB MARKET STILL VERY TIGHT, DEMAND IS HEALTHY BARKIN: WON’T PREJUDGE SIZE OF NEXT RATE HIKE, DEPENDS ON DATA BOSTIC: COULD...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 26, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Powell focused on inflation and the willingness to tolerate “some pain to households and businesses” to bring inflationary pressures down. He also says that it will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy for some time. This is Fedspeak for: 1)...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 24, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place on Friday and will open with a speech by Chair Powell at 10am EST. We expect Powell to reiterate that the FOMC remains committed to bringing inflation down and that upcoming policy decisions will...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 17, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
CPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic activity — creating slack and driving down Unit Labor Cost growth. A key economic...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 11, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
U.S. Headline CPI was flat from June to July, slowing to 8.5% YoY. The core CPI (ex food & energy) rose +0.3%, keeping the YoY number at 5.9%. Headline CPI had the lowest monthly overall reading since May 2020 (0.0%). The unchanged reading was driven by an...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 4, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Another Sizable Hike The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell indicated decisions moving forward would be data dependent. Following the market responses...
