by John Luke Tyner | Jul 20, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Another Month, Another (BIG) Hike. Next Wednesday, July 27th, the Fed is expected to hike 75bps and bring their overnight target up to the FOMC’s consensus neutral rate of 2.5%. We believe that more hikes will be needed to tame inflation, which helps explain why...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 7, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Market Updates
The Yield Curve Inverted… Again The yield curve has inverted temporarily several times this year, but it’s only been for a day or two and then bounced back to a more normal shape (front end lower than the long end). As the Fed continues to hike rates (raising rates at...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 24, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Fed Update Chairman Powell was before Congress this week and admitted several things: 1) rate hikes will not likely bring down cost of gas; 2) rate hikes will not likely bring down the cost of food (wheat, etc); and 3) a soft landing is unlikely, and growth is coming...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 14, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
Peak Inflation… Think Again! Source: Bianco Research. As of 6/10/22 CPI rose 1.0% MoM and 8.6% YoY (a new high) in May. The core CPI again surged 0.6% MoM and 6.0% YoY. Inflation looks to be broadening… The Bones of the Report May’s report...
by John Luke Tyner | May 26, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Municipal bonds have been thrown out with the bathwater since the beginning of the year as the Fed gets serious about taming inflation and in turn the market pushing interest rates higher. The decline in price (and increase in yield) could make the current landscape...
by John Luke Tyner | May 20, 2022 | Blog, Bonds, Market Updates
* Fed Expected to Hike 50bps at Next Two Meetings. As you can see below, the odds on both are at 100%. Given the persistence of inflation, the Fed has been put into defensive mode (i.e., forcefully tightening policy) even into a growth slowdown. Source: Bianco...
