by John Luke Tyner | Jan 12, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The U.S. Headline CPI for December rose +0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) and the core CPI (ex: food & energy) was +0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y). Source: BLS/Stifel as of 01.11.2024 Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. Core inflation is being aided by...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 4, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Biggest Two-Month Rally in 40 Years Optimistic inflation data, and a Fed in the driver’s seat, have investors pricing in ~6 rate cuts in 2024. Source: Bianco as of 12.31.2023 While 6 cuts sound optimistic, based on history it’s not outlandish....
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The shift in expectations for future interest rates has become the top narrative of markets. Following last week’s FOMC meeting, markets were thrilled to see the Fed add rate cuts to their Dot plot (SEP Projections) and talk about the potential for rate cuts....
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 15, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed left its target rate unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, matching market consensus. The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, doesn’t have another rate hike penciled in next year. Source: Bianco/Fed as of 12.14.2023 In addition, expectations...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 7, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Fed expectations moved drastically last week. On Friday, November 24, markets were pricing in three cuts in 2024, with the first in June (orange). By Friday, December 1, the market was pricing in five cuts in 2024, starting around April (blue). Source: Bianco...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 22, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Last week, the CPI & PPI print both came in weaker than expected. The market responded favorably with stocks up and yields dropping. The bigger change in our minds was the drop in forward interest rate expectations where the market continues to price a lower...
