by John Luke Tyner | Oct 25, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Probable Fed Pause in November Fed Chair Powell’s commentary last week pointed to the relentless rise in longer-dated Treasury yields that was creating an environment of tighter financial conditions. This should help do some of the Fed’s work and allow them to...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 11, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Still a Concern September PPI rose 0.5%, more than the 0.3% gain expected and following a 0.7% increase the month prior. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 2.2% in September, up from the 2.0% gain in August and marking the largest increase in five months,...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 27, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The recent Fed meeting brought an update to the 2024 median for the Fed Funds rate. It was pushed higher with the top dot now 6.1%, up from 5.9% in June. If growth persists, several FOMC members see the funds going a lot higher than the market expects. Source:...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
We thought the current backdrop provided an opportunity to dive into the basics of inflation. The below analysis will attempt to isolate different types of inflation, and distill our input on where we stand on each in the current cycle. This is a bit “economic” at its...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 13, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Headline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. Core CPI rose 0.3% (stripping food and energy costs), a hotter pace than the prior two months. Headline CPI: +0.6% (Consensus Expectations: +0.6%) Core CPI:...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 31, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Jackson Hole Fed Chair Powell’s message last week at Jackson Hole was direct. The Fed won’t be taking victory laps over inflation just yet. Powell noted “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies … we will keep at it until the job is done.” Reminds us...
