by John Luke Tyner | Nov 9, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Last week brought a substantial rally in bonds following a brutal three-month span of higher rates. There are a couple of reasons we can point to for the move lower in rates: The US Treasury cut back slightly on the amount of long-term bonds it’s planning to auction,...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 2, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
As broadly expected, the Fed left their target Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.50% range. The pause from July to November marks the longest period without an increase since the liftoff in March of 2022. Powell did leave the door open for further tightening,...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 25, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Probable Fed Pause in November Fed Chair Powell’s commentary last week pointed to the relentless rise in longer-dated Treasury yields that was creating an environment of tighter financial conditions. This should help do some of the Fed’s work and allow them to...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 11, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Still a Concern September PPI rose 0.5%, more than the 0.3% gain expected and following a 0.7% increase the month prior. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 2.2% in September, up from the 2.0% gain in August and marking the largest increase in five months,...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 27, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The recent Fed meeting brought an update to the 2024 median for the Fed Funds rate. It was pushed higher with the top dot now 6.1%, up from 5.9% in June. If growth persists, several FOMC members see the funds going a lot higher than the market expects. Source:...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
We thought the current backdrop provided an opportunity to dive into the basics of inflation. The below analysis will attempt to isolate different types of inflation, and distill our input on where we stand on each in the current cycle. This is a bit “economic” at its...
