The Market in Pictures, May 5

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations   Data as of 05.05.2023  ...

May 2023 FOMC: (Still) Higher for Longer

The Fed delivered a 25bps hike as was broadly expected by markets. They made a modification in their statement omitting the wording regarding the necessity of further rate hikes. To us, this indicates a sort of “hawkish” pause in policy here at the 5-5.25%...

Rearview to Windshield, May 2023

April ‘23 Market Recap: Despite elevated macro and micro uncertainty, the S&P 500 rallied 1.5% in April. Keeping with positive correlation, fixed income continues to trade in the same direction as equities. The recent sharp decline in equity market breadth also...

The Market in Pictures, April 28

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Brad: The recession playbook has mostly filled in and markets seem to be adjusting   Source:...

Thoughts on the Curve. And Municipals.

Curves are Inverted, Term Premiums LOW   The market continues to price in a return to the 2010 norms of subdued inflation pressure, with term premia below zero across the curve.   Source: TS Lombard. As of 04.12.2023   While slower nominal growth could put a...

Is Gold Worth Owning?

The recent performance of gold has caught investor attention. Following the banking sector stress, and a near-record drop in the US 2-year Treasury yield, markets have had a significant change in risk appetite. Markets have repriced from 100bps of further tightening...