Did the Fed Ease Policy?

May 5th, 2022 – Bond Market Week Over Week Update   *  Fed Hikes 50bps and Starts QT, albeit more Slowly than Expected. The Fed hiked rates 50 bps (instead of 75) and basically ruled out 75 bps increases going forward. In our opinion, the Fed eased policy...

Mortgage Bond (MBS) Update

Decomposing Bond Yields Let’s first think about the components of a bond’s yield. At the simplest level, Treasury yields are simply the average expected Fed funds rate over the maturity plus a term premium. A good portion of the recent move in rates has been a direct...

Muni Update

This bond bear market has taken down Munis hard. Yields on Munis (measured by MUB) are around 2.45%, which is ~3.5% tax-free on a 4.25yr duration. Higher Yield Muni funds are around 4% yields (5.7% TEY).     Market Recap Year to date, 10yr AAA Munis have...

Bond Market Week Over Week Update

*  Why Are Yields Rising:  Rising yields are a consequence of falling bond prices, which occurs when investors sell bonds. This is an obvious point, but it’s important to realize that yields aren’t rising by themselves—they are only rising because investors are...

Bond Market Week Over Week Update

*  Bonds… The Rough Stretch Continues:  The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index continues the largest drawdown in its history. Since August 6th, 2020 – the end of the most recent bull market in bonds – the index has declined by -9.2%. Even after the drawdown,...